What can we expect from Overseas Absentee Voting in the upcoming 2022 Philippine elections?
Patricia Miraflores*
Some speculate that Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) are beginning to shed their so-called “voter apathy” when they proved to be game-changers in the 2016 and 2019 Philippine elections. On one hand, the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) made huge strides at improving voter registration abroad to accommodate the Filipino diaspora which comprises 10% of the total Philippine population. For instance, their launching of iREHISTRO, an online application form during the registration period for the 2016 presidential elections, eased some aspects of this process.
On the other hand, actual voter turnouts have remained low among overseas Filipinos for the past decade. With several OFWs repatriated during the COVID-19 pandemic, COMELEC had to extend the deadline for returning migrants to transfer their voter registration records from overseas to local voting for the upcoming 2022 presidential elections. Given the unprecedented repatriation of more than 300,000 OFWs during the pandemic, can these voting patterns change or will they only be exacerbated?
Recent history of overseas Filipino voting
In the Philippines, exercising the right to vote is a fundamental political right that has come to transcend national boundaries because of its significant diaspora population. The bureaucratic process of voting — from registration to election day — has evolved to accommodate overseas Filipino workers residing outside the Philippines. This has been the case since the Overseas Absentee Voting (OAV) Act or R.A. 9189 was passed in 2003 which mandated the participation of overseas “absentee” voters (OAV) during Philippine elections. This law enables eligible land-based and seafaring Filipino voters working or residing outside the Philippines to cast their ballots abroad.
Since the OAV Act was mandated, there has been a steady increase in the number of newly registered overseas Filipino voters. This was especially noticeable in the Middle East where Filipino voter registration significantly overtook Asia Pacific since 2016. Most of this could be attributed to high voter registration and turnouts in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the top two preferred destinations for OFWs as of 2019. In the Asia Pacific, voter registration and turnouts have been consistently highest in Hong Kong, the third top destination for OFWs, and in Singapore. The United States is also in the top five countries with the highest registration of OAVs for the past five election cycles.
Source: Registered overseas Filipino voters per region recorded by the Commission on Elections
On one hand, there is an upward trend in the number of OAVs who registered and actually cast their ballots from 2007 to 2019, with the number peaking in 2016. Based on this pattern, registered OAVs are also more likely to go out and vote when presidential and vice presidential positions are at stake. As illustrated below, OAV registration increased by more than 100% during the presidential elections of 2016 compared to the midterm elections of 2013. Turnout also increased among registered OAVs by 32.4%, favoring then-candidate President Rodrigo Durterte. Subsequently, turnouts decreased in the midterm elections of 2019 in the absence of a presidential electoral process despite OAV registration reaching an all-time high that same year. This pattern was also observed in the 2007-2010-2013 cycles in which the actual turnout peaked during the 2010 presidential elections despite the increase in registered voters in the 2013 midterm elections. As such, one would expect a moderate spike in OAV turnouts for the upcoming 2022 presidential elections under normal circumstances.
However, in the context of the pandemic, there are special factors to consider. For instance, COMELEC expects that OAV turnouts will be even lower in the 2022 elections because of OFW repatriation during the pandemic. This is especially relevant to the Middle East where 228,893 OFWs have been repatriated as of January 2021, comprising nearly 10% of the total number of OFWs in the region.
No-shows and low turnouts despite increasing registration rates
Before the pandemic, actual turnouts among registered OAVs have already been a crucial issue regardless of destination and type of election. During the midterm elections in 2007, only 16.22% of registered OAVs cast their votes due to poor voter education, misinformation, and pre-requirements for voting. These problems still carried over in the 2010 presidential and 2013 midterm elections which, as some argued, reflects not only the perils of overseas registration, but also the growing apathy of OAVs towards homeland politics.
Even during the 2016 presidential elections, when overall interest in national politics was relatively higher among OAVs, there was a huge gap in turnouts between them and local voters. Whereas 81.95% of registered voters in the Philippines casted their ballots, only 42.21% of registered OAVs abroad did. As illustrated below, OAVs still tend to exhibit low turnouts despite the increasing number of registered voters across all regions. Despite the huge strides made at improving OAV registration, turnouts are still comparably low, showing that “liberalizing” absentee voting alone may not be enough to increase actual turnout.
This is best illustrated by the two recent election turnouts in the Middle East, which had the highest increase in registration among OAVs in the past five years. Regardless of these increased registration rates, turnouts in the 2016 and 2019 elections in the region were only 27.33% and 13.64%, respectively. Taking the recent repatriations into account, this is expected to decline in the upcoming elections.
Actual turnouts among registered overseas Filipino voters per region
Sources: Registered and actual overseas Filipino voters per region recorded by the Commission on Elections
From overseas to local and vice versa: Repatriated and re-migrating OFWs
The upcoming 2022 presidential elections would be a remarkable test for COMELEC in addressing the complex issues of OAVs that emerged in the context of a mid-pandemic Philippines. First, the repatriation of several OFWs would test COMELEC’s capacity to curb the potential disenfranchisement of registered overseas voters who would now have to vote in their local registries. With half of recently repatriated OFWs already considering re-migrating, the hesitation to register at a local poll is understandable.
One silver lining is the pressure for COMELEC to innovate the voting registration processes. For instance, Virtual Frontline Services have been offered to enable online registration for overseas voting by booking an appointment via email or Facebook. Although this has yet to address low OAV turnouts, the gradual digitalization of these processes and the use of social media tools are potential avenues for improvement. As the pandemic revealed, elections should accommodate repatriated OFWs as well as those considering re-migration. These voting processes should strive to become accessible and flexible because mobility between the source and host countries is part of the Filipino diaspora experience.
Lastly, one must remember that the power of the Filipino diaspora as election game-changers transcends their individual capacity to vote. As was the case in the 2016 and 2019 elections, OFWs are breadwinners who can shape their families’ and relatives’ votes. The pandemic is a double-edged sword which could either exacerbate or mitigate the voter apathy and low turnouts among OAVs. Given the heightened role of OFW communities in coping with the pandemic, there is a lot of potential to foster political will among OAVs to vote. On the other hand, disillusionment is also a possible tertiary effect since some Philippine institutions struggled to address OFWs’ precarity during the pandemic. To encourage the collective participation of OAVs in the upcoming elections, the COMELEC ought to harness the power of OFW networks which some predict could lead to an OFW voting bloc in the upcoming 2022 elections.
Patricia Miraflores* is a graduate student pursuing a joint Master’s degree in M.A. Euroculture at the University of Groningen and Uppsala University. She is a recipient of the 2020 Erasmus Mundus scholarship award from the European Commission. Email: p.e.c.miraflores@student.rug.nl