Author: Congressional Research Service
Year: 2022
City: Washington.
Context analysis: People Migration
Origins of the Conflict
Motivated by the events in my region; East, Central and Horn of Africa, I have embarked on analyzing the devastating effects of the ongoing Tigray conflict on the population. Over four million people are in need of humanitarian need in Tigray and almost seventy thousand have fled the region (USAID, 2021). This is a significant number of individuals considering the mortality rate as a result of the conflict. Thus, a key analysis of the factors resulting from the conflict, its effects on migration and recommendations are necessary.
Ethiopia which is considered an African giant on many contexts be it economic power, physical size and chronological factors is a key continental power. Addis Ababa is the diplomatic capital of Africa and is the seat of the African Union as well as other international organizations. Its economy is one of the strongest in the continent. Despite the Tigray conflict, it ranks as number one hundred and fifty with a Gross Domestic Product of $282 billion dollars (Heritage Organization, 2022). Ethiopia is therefore a regional and world key player.
Tigray is one of the regions in Ethiopia others include Gambella, Oromo, Harari, Amhara, Somali and Southern Peoples. Each region has an autonomous government that answers to the central government. All regions have a parallel army and police force, with some having more power than others. Owing to the countries’ diverse and ethnic and regional makeup, it has had several conflicts motivated by wishes of independence or more autonomy (VOX news, 2021).
The Ethiopian-Eritrean war was motivated by a need of the Eritrean people to be independent, thus a long decade war took place. Other regions motivated by Eritrea’s success also demanded more autonomy or independence leading to protests nationwide. The largest region in the country motivated by a need for more power in the federal level or absolute autonomy was rocked by protests years before the war (TRT world , 2017). Perceived domination of the federal government by Tigray’s: Tigray People Liberation Front party led to the rise of current prime minister Abey Hamed.
In a summary, the Tigray conflict was motivated by a bid to tame social or regional divisions which was initially successful with Abey Hamed winning the coveted Global Peace Price. It all came down crushing down in a bid to retrain or change the political status quo status. The regional dominant party and once nationwide Tigray People Liberation Front went on an offensive or defensive against the federal state. Having liberated the country from the hands of Mengitsu’s Derg communist regime it was up for the fight. Many members being members of America’s dark international training book.
Displacement and Mass Migration in Tigray
Ethiopia’s federal government expecting a quick victory was initially successful and minimum collateral damage was expected. Federal troops had reached the Tigrayan capital by late 2020, Mekelle but by June 2021, they had lost the capital and region. By November, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front forced Dr Abbey to be a field marshal and call for a national state of emergency (Al Jazeera, 2021).
The civilian population like any other African conflict has borne the brunt of suffering with records of mass atrocities (Montreal, 2022). One incident saw the execution of twenty individuals suspected to be Tigray People Liberation Front; retreating soldiers of the movement also took revenge on civilians and surrendering soldiers. Both sides have not been shy to use explosives which are in plenty supply. Countless buildings have been destroyed forcing many to seek shelter and safety elsewhere.
Majority of the Tigrayan population as well as other ethnicities are trapped in Tigray as Internally Displaced People. The use of Eritrean units to attack Tigray has led to trapping of millions as the next border is with Sudan which uses militias to control its borders. Same units utilized in Darfur, Kordufan and its contested lands. Being an inhabitant of Abyei region formally in Kordufan state the tactics are surely familiar. No alternatives to detention as articulated by the Global Compact for Migration; ‘In Africa we go rough’ is the adage of Sudan’s border militias.
The courageous only take refuge across the border in Sudan, complicated by a border conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan over Al Fashaga. Civilians are therefore left to choose between retreating to other safe towns within Tigray or join Tigray People’s Liberation Front. A factor which I attribute to the success of the movement; attrition. Thousands of fresh and desperate recruits humbled Ethiopia’s federal troops by capturing territory in Amhara and forcing a cease fire. Mass mobilization of civilians occurred as concerns of an invasion on the capital city became real (Channel 4 news , 2021).
Statistics indicate that only sixty thousand individuals arrived in Eastern Sudan by March 2021. Compared to the six million people in Tigray,it reflects less than 1% of the population indicating safety concerns. Many more have crossed to Djibouti utilizing the northern migration route to escape the conflict. Evidenced by the amount of people of Ethiopian reaching Yemen refugee centers daily as well as the coast of Spain (USAID, 2021). It is therefore the duty of international stakeholders to save the millions caught up in Tigray.
Recommendations to Aid the Displaced
Owing to the highlighted tension with Sudan over Al-Fashaga town and the nation, leaves few alternatives for the displaced. The first cause of action which should have occurred on the onset of the conflict is an emphasis on an emergency global response mechanism. Ethiopia being a signatory of the United Nations should have seen a deployment of a regional force to protect civilians as well as ease tensions.
Global aid organizations as well as human right monitoring mechanisms should focus their efforts along the border of Tigray and Sudan. To protect the seventy thousand displaced from diplomatic tensions and abusive militias, resettlement plans should immediately start with international stakeholders such as Canada in consultation. The most vulnerable being in consideration, regional neighbors should lead the effort with help of international partners such as the United Nations and International Organization for Migration.
Considering that four million people are in need in Tigray, the only solution is a political one and I would like to congratulate regional powers for working on a ceasefire. A power sharing deal is the solution to allow free movement of goods to Tigray and save millions. The spirit of the people of Tigray as witnessed in the recapture of Mekelle is not easily broken. Global mediation efforts and a monitoring ground force be it from the African Union or United Nations is key to a final solution.
In the words of Prime Minister Dr Abey Ahmed; ‘War is an epitome of failure for all involved.’
Benedict Kuol is a GRDFT Global Compact for Migration graduate as well as a finance major from Strathmore University. He aims to be the best GRDFT research intern and is passionate about writing and research.