Origins of the Conflict
The current ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war results from chronological events in the former Soviet Union’s and current Russia’s timeline. The Soviet Union is a former block of countries that covered Eastern Europe and was unified with the communist ideology. Unlike other European countries that emphasized a free consumer market, they opted for a government-regulated consumer model on the basis of equality. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War with the US and reinforced the free-market ideology. (BBC News, 2019).
Beginning with the collapse of the Berlin wall, many Soviet Union states declared independence, and just like the fall of the Ottoman empire, it led to the redrawing of traditional geographical borders. Like the Baltic states, there was a war between many member states as each wanted strategic territory, and ethnic groups based in states demanded autonomy. The Chechnyan war is a good example where an uprising occurred as the indigenous Chechnyan Muslims demanded absolute independence. Russia was able to retain the territory, but peace has not been attained yet.
Ukraine was able to undergo a smooth transition from the Soviet Union and embarked on development like other former Soviet states. Its ties with Russia were strong in many aspects, with many Ukrainians opting for the Russian identity. Russia recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union and adapting to capitalism, still held its world leader role due to its military might accumulated over the decades. The economies of the countries, still reliant on many aspects, gradually grew almost at the same rate until interference by the European Union (VOX, 2015).
Centuries of coexistence since the era of Catherine the Great of Prussia seemed threatened in the Russian eye due to the growing proximity between Ukraine and the West. A panicked Russian intelligence bureau did all it could to back the Pro-Russian president in Ukraine, but all was in vain. Feeling the pressure on their state from their ‘traditional’ enemies, the European Union and Northern Trade Alliance Trade Organization, the Russians launched an invasion along its borders. Attacks on Georgia were under the pretext of guarding the motherland, and Ukraine next door was up for the taking.
Invasion and its Consequences
Ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine started demanding autonomy which paralleled the protests against the national leadership intending to join North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. Donbas region has two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, which saw mass protests on the issue. A referendum led to the region declaring autonomy which led to a confrontation between Russian separatists and the Ukrainian state. The conflict gradually escalated, with each side attacking the other despite negotiation attempts, complemented by Russia and its support for the separatists.
The war was waged covertly for almost three years until Russia, paranoid from the Ukrainian negotiations with Europe and North Atlantic Treaty Organization, decided to invade. On 24th February 2022, Russian troops marched into Ukraine and captured town by town in their move towards Kyiv. In my opinion, both sides are to blame, along with the United Nations and other world powers. Russia’s concern had to be addressed, yet they were left to continue a covert war without a peacekeeping intermediary, hence the boost to a military approach rather than a negotiated settlement.
Mass displacement has been the first consequence, with a majority of victims originating from Donbas, where separatists demanded autonomy. United Nations High Commission estimates that Ukrainian crisis has resulted in the highest internal displacement in the entire world. An analysis of the political attitude saw that majority of the displaced in the Donbas region opted to seek refuge in Russia. The same was the opposite for Crimeans who opted to seek refuge in mainland Ukraine. Many saw the opportunity to start living abroad.
The February 2022 invasion has seen dramatic events only comparable to the invasion of Kabul in Afghanistan by the Taliban in recent history. Events caught the world by surprise in a scenario that was so far perceived as having an improbable probability of occurring, and thus, the refugee crisis is of epic dimensions. The neutral stance and lack of an international peacekeeping force on the ground make the scenario even worse. Unlike African conflicts where the United Nations responded and set up camps for the internally displaced, this was not done in Crimea or Ukraine. The second invasion has seen six million individuals displaced internally and more refugees.
What is the role of the United Nations if superpowers cannot be held accountable? If the United Nations is a world regulator, why should it not wield superior weapons and mediate forcefully.
Resettlement and a Future for Ukrainians
BBC News Africa (BBC, 2022) shows how Africans privileged to live the ‘Ukrainian’ dream have seen their lives disrupted. One Kenyan friend Njeri, narrated on a personal level how she had to walk for two days to the border with Poland. Living in Eastern Ukraine and next to the airport, she wakes up to an airport in flames. She had planned to take a flight to London on rumors of a pending invasion but was shocked to find the Russian army next door. Forced to undertake a perilous journey of two days on foot to Poland, I could see her emotions as she lamented.
Njeri narrated that those hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been received in Poland, and ironically, many have opted to resettle in Russia due to deep ancestral roots. Detailed statistics show four million individuals are resettled in Poland. One million in Russia, another million in Romania, half a million in Romania, and another a million in other European countries. Canada has shown an open border policy to Ukrainians, and so has the United States, which opted to host or help resettle Ukrainians (UNHCR, 2022).
The major concern should not be for the refugees but for constant critical monitoring of the internally displaced families in Ukraine. As the invasion continues, an international monitoring force should be deployed to provide support to Ukrainians and prevent a massacre. Immediate and critical negotiation between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization should occur on all issues both sides are concerned about. All parties should be held accountable, including NATO, which should put human lives first.
United Nations, which is the global mandated monitoring mechanism, should force parties to save lives rather than embark on an arms race. Russian humanitarians are a key to a cessation of hostilities and ensure respect for human rights as this shall create the ground to aid their brothers, the Ukrainians. A global resettlement emergency mechanism should be developed based on any impromptu conflict as well as the current crises like the fall of Afghanistan or the invasion of Ukraine. Quick international rescue of refugees, response, and resettlement should be a global priority.
Benedict Kuol is a GRDFT Global Compact for Migration graduate as well as a finance major from Strathmore University. He is a passionate writer and aims to excel as a GRDFT Research Intern.